The question | Terms and clocks | The data | The analysis plan | Step 1: build the cohort | Check the condition of delayed entry | Step 2: describe the cohort | Step 3: fit the ladder of models | How to read a hazard ratio per SD | Why the hazard ratios change between rows | Hazard ratios for death | Step 4: does the progression score add information? | Step 5: CAD risk by score group | Step 6: choose a design for the absolute risks | Step 7: predict absolute risk | Which horizons can be evaluated? | Absolute risk for a person | Risk across the score distribution | Step 8: internal validation | Apparent performance | One plan for all functions | Discrimination | Calibration: are the risks right? | Decision curves | Step 9: external validation | The export | The external cohort | Performance in the second biobank | The primary tests in the second biobank | Step 10: start follow-up at the T2D diagnosis | Step 11: deaths treated as censoring | Risk by score group | Absolute risk | Fine-Gray models | Step 12: answer the question | Reporting checklist | Limitations to report | References